Owning Your Mistakes

By the indications I drew on the charts it may have sounded like I was growing more bearish and inferring that the market would collapse and that the trendline would hold and that the target at 21,469 will be met but it turns out that did not come to pass and newer highs are already printed and you can see with the caption that says break it was the break of the all-time highs from August 8

It is not savory to make mistakes like calling the all-time tops but there are cases when a collection of different factors work together like seasonality and lower volume trading to that end those facts shaped some of my opinion going into the end of August of a lower market but is always a good idea to have a positive outlook and reframe the situation as something to learn from rather than be ashamed about it.

On the other hand a sign of strength is and how distribution days have been falling off account and they have been fading away with time when distribution becomes less powerful the market just tends to grind higher and the Bears need a cluster of those distribution days with higher volume to prove that they have a presence and that they are going to be selling at the peaks of every rally (counter-trend rally in this case we are not in a bear-market) also when I do a triple screen analysis I would be interested in checking every time frame to confirm a prices point on the curve or trend and whether it is at the high side or low side of the range.  And these types of conditions make it challenging because there are no other references for previous highs that can hold as resist points

The surge higher has been relentless that even though these are eight hour candles the stock market has yet to open for Monday's trading and it has already gapped higher (these candlesticks are continuous but ETFs and other equity markets have not yet stareted trading)

So it is early to be very bullish or think that the market go to 22,500 because there are a lot of political headlines coming and this week has an important driver which is the Federal Reserve decision, it is in my interest to see the markets down but I would entertain projecting prices at higher levels in spite of other factors working against it like not having a correction and the amount of time the rally has run its course.