Points of Exit and Hitting Targets

For the times that I have flirted with VXX and had profitable trades they were mainly on closing a big portion of shares like 50% and 75% in that day.  So in the end of this post I will discuss targets and the strategy for getting out at optimized levels.  

• This type of trade needs to be hedged with XIV or other short volatility instruments for the longer holding periods
• Opportunities are very short lived because of how quickly it changes in a reaction greater than the broad market

At first glance its really obvious this is a negative and bearish chart pattern.  But, I feel as though there is an opportunity here.  These are the technical reasons

• The exhaustion from short sellers of volatility has reached a semi-climax (not absolute) but there is reason for them to pause and the amount of time gone by has been tremendous, there is going to come a time when price reach equilibrium and now its so low on the curve its about time for another phase of the cycle to kick-in where volatility turns higher
• The inverted dome:  the price pattern shown here shows two main turning points 33.67 and 33.19 with 33.19 being the most recent, the tightness of its trading range is another clue as to why price ranges should begin expanding again 
•   In spite of the color of today's daily candle, it still turned much higher at the end of the day and made for a lot of excitement and bullish price action so the CLOSERS ended up driving it higher than yesterdays close [higher highs and higher lows]
• 10/25/2017 the entire range was 3.37 with the quick burn out from the days highs, this type of movement can repeat itself but with how well coiled price is I expect more of a 3.8 or 4.0 point move
• Volume is terribly low, non-confirming for the volatility bears

Points of Exit for long positions

• 40, or just a few notches higher
• Absolutely 47.5 - 50 and these are for the next few weeks
• Lastly if it moves so much faster than I can anticipate then I would look for the previous price spikes from August 8/10 and 8/16 and the mid June levels if they could be revisited