Overdone in Short Volatility Shares - A Potential Scenario; 21 points

There are two charts which make up this post.  The first is of the XIV and its respective trading range for these past 4 daily sessions. The topping doji/congested candle printed on 11/28 was merely a pause in the uptrend before what looks like the beginnings of a major reversal

Here are some observations about what the charts saying

The measured range in light gray take into account the entire drop from top to bottom of this week's range

• The swing from 121.38 to today's intraday low of 102.82 is a massive decline of 18.56, that magnitude of decline only happened during brief moments in the summer and other fleeting declines in the equity markets.
• The powerful origins of the September rally coincide with where my projected target ends.  
• Gaps and their tendency of filling means that it may take longer than I think, but there is a chance that the downtrend can pause at just below $81

21 points is extreme, but XIV was trading at an extreme for this week and prices tend to mean revert.  They go back to their longer term moving averages.  

When put in perspective a bigger percentage decline is not so exaggerated when compared to the advance since early November 2016