Saturday, March 3, 2018

Expansion vs. Contraction

The fractal of the S&P 500 

This fits very well with some fractal models of how expanded the rallies can become.  It is not a wave count but more of a measure of how things can move if they were to fit into this mold.  The other thing to noticed about an environment with increased volatility is how much faster the corrections move versus these supposed "counter-trend bounces"  if this is truly a bear market we would not overtake the highs at 2875.  The rally has been lucrative in the sense that a 10.3% rally is great for those positioned to the long side.  I am happy for them.  



  • Measured moves instead of using other technical indicators 
Based on prior performance, the continuation of the sell off could lead us into the next trading zone which is at 2465.  It is also a giant support point.  Some buy programs would simply be triggered there. 
  • Bollinger Bands
  • Moving Averages
  • Trendlines and the underlying volume aspect of price action
The other technical indications can be added to be more well rounded in the approach but this is just an extrapolation of what we could see going into Mid-March and spring seasonality; I prefer to keep my charts mostly bare.  

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