Tesla @ 252

TSLA Value Proposition

• Unique Cash Rasing through long positions
• Making a bigger sized short position by profiting on upswings

The reason for this post is because I am testing this zone as a potential area of value.  I believe in the short term, this provides some interesting price reference, especially because of how TSLA acted in March of 2017 the three weeks it spent turning around at 2/27, 3/6 and 3/13 - that is to say the origin of that rally propelled shares to near 390!

TSLA from its peak in September of last year until today dropped 137 points, and even a 50% bounce-back would bring shares to a level 69 points higher than today's low; on one hand its not fair to say that it should rocket back to 320 again but the fundamental backdrop can change just as fast. 

I have been believing this will crater, but like many moves in the markets it went past my wildest expectations. 

• Risk management and not believing in hope 
• Point of Rally origin at shaded rectangle
• The 50 period and 225 period simple MA in gold and green
• Points of closing long position at $284.57, $304.64, and maybe even $320.87

Risk Management

I don't believe in fighting trends, but this is something I have been watching for time to get in, and now is probably a good idea to think about getting some without any hope of it working out.  I don't believe its a good idea to believe hope can actually help if the trend continues.  What is most simple to see is that anything below the shaded rectangle spells much more trouble for potential optimists, so 10 points of risk for roughly 50 to 69 points of reward and with the 225 moving average acting as support its as clear as day to notice how deeply oversold it is short term.  

Support Point @ 252.12

It was so well respected that it led to this massive strentgh and quick departure of the level back in late February of last year

Converging Moving Averages

As price potentially climbs both the golden and green moving averages will eventually start coming together, thus the 225 in green would act as a potential floor and the overhead golden slope as resistance.  Yet, price has traveled so far and fast away from the $332.76 (golden moving average) that a counter-trend rally would need to persist for days and weeks before all three come together [50, 225 and price nearly connect]

Points of Long Closure

Measured moves don't always work but practically speaking they give excellent spots to lighten up a position if other traders are viewing them as potential targets.  So in our case closing 500 shares, entered at $258 and then closing them in different sized exits would mean we can close 200 shares at $284, then the second 200 shares at $304.64 and then the rest at or near the 50% retracement at $320.87