The Shift

The ground that I wanted to cover today is when a trend changes state, and where to determine reversals and continuations

• Charting involves adjusting for a higher low, but possibly 10-15 points higher
• Is the market neutral for the year, sell trigger?
• 1 hour time interval covers one month
• The change in market state to a more bullish tone
• Violations of a upward moving trendline and what the moving average is telling us

When newer highs are formed, I often remove the previous high and it no longer is relevant to that state of the trend.  In our case here, look at the shaded oval in green, it was a high, in a series of other highs that were formed, which were higher than the previous highs; the pattern is very clear

On the other hand, in this micro view (1 hour chart) it would seem like price is chopping around before resuming the uptrend, but at precisely the highs of today the market was just about unchanged for the year, and then in the final two hours the sell-off intensified wiping out the days gains.  Is it a sell trigger, there is a possibility  2662 to 2678 were really tough to hold (keep higher) and there is plenty of volume to go along with the selling pressure. 

One month:  Since 3/11 most of the selling was triggered at or below the moving average until it bottomed out between 4/1 and 4/2

The trendline, although loose, is still pointing higher, but price cut through it in a very aggressive fashion.  The moving average on the one hour chart is not saying much of any type of up or down trend, its just chopping around, but on the daily it paints a different picture.

Volume is increasing on a bearish day, and there is an intense rejection of the highs today right within close distance of the 50 period moving average on the daily chart.