Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Forex In Focus Dollar or Anti-Dollar

Dollar Index
for a moment I thought the strength of the recent decline was substantial enough to signal a change in trend.  That means most of the progress gained at S1 11,881 would be wiped out by the sellers pounding the index.  Because the market can change on a dime I had to be willing and able to call a change in direction but in recent days there was a consolidation (Shaded yellow oval) that would mean the rally could base and rally again.  This rally then base than rally, is more of a pattern that we are looking for in a bullish sequence.  So the dollar index printed four distinct higher lows which are highlighted with the green arrows.  The bullish engulfing candle was for August 22, 2017.  That also begs the question if the index can make it to 12,038 or the R1 and R2 locations above which would confirm the extra strength for the dollar being that it has had some trouble climbing to 12,000.  There is more news about monetary policy coming out so that can be a driving factor.  As always I prefer to have two supportive zones and two resistance zones on a chart to clarify and make a strategy more tangible no matter what happens.  The moving average above also suggests that price can drift toward that price also

Goal Revisited

I did not trade this way but only partially.  A lot of times trading you will find that sometimes your targets not only are met but they are exceeded.  This excess text box at 111 is where I felt price can begin you to tighten and head down.  I was not heavily involved in this pair but this is a 30 minute chart and the area labeled boost was where I previously wrote about it preparing for a rally so now that it is down in this 109 territory it can still bounce a little bit but as strong yen would bring it lower like 108.507 and 108.19 judging by the strength of these recent to candles it would seem like 109.50 is likely because it is coming off and origin of a powerful rally







The EUR/USD has been waiting on direction from monetary policy authorities like the Federal Reserve and ECB and for that reason I believe it is chopping around even though the daily chart does not show a tight range it still has been acting ambivalent but it has been hitting temporary highs that are shaded in red the strongest demand we have seen is in the green rectangle and some of the buying points at S2


Loonie acting Looney

Is this just an interim correction? when I first pointed out how powerful of the resist 1.27687 was I did not think I was in for such a surprise because the height from that price to now came out to a 252 pip drop.  So the strategy now is to find support points and test their relevance.  There is a lot of consolidation going on and the height of the blue candles are clustering and it can signal some potential upside.  A possible observation is that lower highs are forming and could lead to plenty of overhead resistance but the two blue horizontal lines shown at 1.25277 and 1.25405 only show that price is reacting to this buyer support with some sensitivity.  If support zones do not get respected it would continue the trend of lower lows and lower highs



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