The 50% Retracement

[Chart 1 ] US Dollar Index the breakout for the dollar index happen on Friday which was the long blue bar that took price out of the green zone the strength of the move was powerful and it really only spent 2 to 3 days down at 11,900.  Now that it is trading at 11,936 it is in a consolidation phase and it will test if the breakouts occur to the upside and if there is a pattern of a trend up, then a moment to consolidate again before breaking higher.  In the yellow oval I cited 12,000 because that is where an important drop happened, the resistance is somewhat important for short-term trade.  And higher above is the 12,101 mark where the 50 period simple moving average coincides with an area of stiff resistance

[Chart 2] the euro is consolidating it spent some time on this four hour chart attempting to move higher again in spite of eight hours of pounding it received after the jobs numbers were released.  The key points I have for this chart are where price can go in terms of resistance and support.  In terms of resistance 1.19066 and 1.19501 are directly overhead but there was a lot of power in the selloff.  Just below at 1.17309 there is the origin of the breakout that happened on July 31st where a powerful rally that occurred and I think it can occur again and below there is S2 and S3 at 1.16 and slightly higher and 1.15.  The market conditions can change this so we can adjust our time frames to find other opportunities if the movement is swift and moves in depth bigger than 100 pips.  

[Chart 3] Counter trend trade, the retracement from the jobs numbers on the red line to the left takes the point of origin from the drop to the very bottom where price was able to retrace by 50% at 1.18068.  I decided to go with the trend {at least in this time frame} and showed my entry and exit for the logic of the long position I was holding which gained 23.1 points.    I don't know where price will move now or what the news will bring when the next breakout occurs so I am just waiting

[Chart 4 ] There are  greenish/blue  rectangles below that highlight where price took off after pullback the first bottom point is 1.2445, that is on the hard right edge before the jobs numbers, the second one happened at 1.25572 and the third one happened at 1.260292 highlight further how a price chart showing higher lows that are stacked upon higher lows gives us a reference point where we can buy the dips without raising the average cost too much and average entry. These mini bottoms happened on the eight hour chart at these levels  1.24498,1.2 625, 1.25476,  1.25625, 1.25763 and the question of absorption means buyers will be tested in their ability to put a stop to the drop here at 1.26776.  Each time a red candle was printed on the chart the buyers stepped in and drove it higher I have placed some resistance points above is well which can happen at 1.2753 and 1.27683.  The exchange rate is beginning to trade at a different momentum where the advances are around 125 pips and the declines do happen but I set a target for a level that high to give it more space.  And over the next 2 weeks there is a possibility of it challenging 1.29 is well

[Chart 4] AUD regress these next charts I will show how much I'm losing in terms of floating positions where I am long of the AUD and the opportunity of being short NZD.  Each text note on the AUD/JPY chart shows my long position entry where I'm adding to a winner.  The point of this chart in its daily timeframe is to show that adding to a trend at the end is like being the last buyer.  We will see what happens and if this can trade below 87.445 which for me is crucial support for this zone I will show how I will be replacing the losses with the heads position where I'm selling short the NZD/JPY to compensate for negative movement in this position

[Chart 5] NZD/JPY the power of this decline I started selling it short at 83 and 82.5 and then I decided it wasn't worth it to hold it overnight because of the carried interest that I'm paying.  If I were to get short here the red zone would be total losses in the Green zone would be total profits.  That means this entire space is approximately 550 points of opportunity.  I would not like to hold this short so the red zone of potential losses does not apply to my style and even if I did hold it short I would have tight stops even in the red zone.