Sunday, August 13, 2017

The Waves of Bollinger Bands

I have found Bollinger bands to give signals that have clarity.  When price closes above or below a band it often signals further direction or confirmation of the dominant move. 

In this chart we are studying the price action of Apple shares where the date goes back to June 5 of this year where price was trading at the red part of the Bollinger band which we will call the resistance band and it traded down to the purple band which we will call the supportive band.  The green sloping line in the middle is the mean.  The Bulls will look for further action in a positive direction when price breaks above the upper band.  Likewise bears look for continuation of a move when it breaks and closes below the lower purple band. 

 In this case there is a severe drop in early June where the long red candle printed on June 9 it close below the purple supportive band and five trading sessions after, it cut through and closed below the purple supportive band at point A.  For many of the bears interested in shorting they were caught in the middle of the excitement and when price moved higher the next day the signal was invalidated (the underlying trend was still up).  On July 11 the mean price point to be coincided with a preceding rising trend on this daily chart where three candles were in succession [Three Marching Soldiers].  That is three green candles in a row which led to a series of price rises where it did close above the resistance band. 

 The note called "extreme resist point" on July 27, where it did not trade that much higher and it exhibited a classic scenario of when price moves from near the resistance and all th way down to the mean in the same day

At the horizontal blue arrow where it says mean reversion price had the chance to coil and set up for earnings where it jumped into the 158 territory and then began closing above the upper band for all of the days in the series "Close Above Upper Band" The yellow arrow is placed on August 7th, and the obvious tall red candle printed on the 10th signals bearishness, and sets up a Harami formation.

 Included you will find a case for a bearish Harami.  They tend to be like mirror opposites of each other on bullish and bearish sides of the price action.  Of course where I made another note called next mean reversion at 153 that goal can happen in a day but bring your attention back to June 9 where price drifted toward the supportive band and went back to point A.  that is possible within a week because of a shift in how traders are reacting to the news and typical August to October seasonality.





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