Comparisons

Crude Oil and The US-Dollar

The US-Dollar against the Canadian dollar is shaded in red and green while Crude Oil is shaded in purple and white.  They are on there to underline the negative relationship the dollar is supposed to have to crude oil and/or the Canadian dollar

Most of the arrow points on this chart highlight advances in crude, between 3.86%, 4.38% and 6.81%

Point A

It is the start of the 3.86% rally in June of last year.  The underlying commodity experienced a modest rally while the dollar declined massively against it.  After that, the USD and Crude oil were in a bit of a sideways comparative movement, while crude oil mostly gained. 

In December of last year crude oil picked up massively while the dollar continued its retest of multi week lows.  From mid-November to mid-January the negative relationship correlated very well. 

Point B

Even though Crude retraced 3.53% you could notice how powerful the Dollar's responsive rally was, and even though that relationship broke in 4/9 until now (meaning they started positively correlating) there is still chance for the mid-January type of set-up to resume where the dollar rallies and crude fades

Point C

The Dollar had a technical retracement because of many issues like how quickly the dollar index advanced, the overall state of the commodity market and in particular this currency pair can have the interpretation of a lower high in a series of higher highs, or a speedbump on the way higher if you would.  There are surely many political reasons why crude can continue climbing, but it is our opinion that the US-Dollar spent an 8 month period basing against the Canadian dollar and the commodities that trade with it.