Longer Term Dollar Implications

The US-Dollar VS Swiss Franc

The Monthly Curve; expensive or cheap

We are comparing the economy of the US to the Swiss

The downtrend is clear, however for many months the dollar is starting to turn the corner, so it is up for debate just how the US comparatively handles its monetary policy to the Swiss

The curve for the Dollar against the Franc has been slowly grinding higher for the past 6 years and it is starting to show fresher highs, with a longer term base that appears to be one of the classic cup-with handle patterns and the upside breakout is coming on soon.  The challenge for dollar bulls is the 1.03576 level which I put in the horizontal line above.  And the green and red rectangles here mark where I believe there is either buying or selling pressure (green and red respectively) 

 

The trend on the weekly timeframe

Price on its weekly timeframe is showing some signs of fatigue but there is still plenty of upside left because the current level of 1.0012 is not EXTREMELY expensive yet, and the more powerful overhead resistance is located near the bottom of the red rectangle between 1.03 and 1.0357

The daily and closer to exhaustion and pullback

If the trend is much more bullish then the logic would be that the pullback will be modest and should be seen as a buying opportunity because of the break of the 0.9971 level that puts the exchange rate in a much more bullish sequence of events.  And what I mean by that is the motivation would be to break above the near-term high of 1.00558 and gradually pace itself to 1.01, then 1.02 etc with each level set to a higher goal.  

There are some early signs of distribution and the Dollar index itself is starting to weaken a bit, but if the trend overall is still intact patience would pay off when buying these dip opportunities.