Will there be a pullback in the USD?

The Year of the Dollar or Pending Euro-Zone Weakness

The Higher Time Frame 

Here are some technical conditions in the US-Dollar

• 471 Point Advance since January 25th 
• The Power of this most recent Advance
• The placement of the 50-SMA (Moving Average)
• Where the more aggressive buyers triggered orders
• The Shallow Pauses

The magnitude of this advance has been very powerful and 471 points is enough to cause a stall here, and possible retracement.  The dollar has not pulled back much ever since breakout out of the buyer's zone below (light yellow)

Many measured moves have been completed (goals have been met) and even though the US-Dollar didn't reach the psychologically significant 12,000 level it still came very close to the shelf top established in December last year at or around 11,975

The simple moving average here is constantly in motion, but if the index would mean revert today back to it, price would have to touch 11,736 (current position) The slope of the line will adjust tomorrow and next week, but its fair to say that many will be anticipating a move back toward that line, and for that reason there could be some buyers stepping aside until enough time has passed.  

Most of the aggressive buyers were waiting for a pullback at just a notch above 11,850 (acceptance) and we anticipate the Dollar to pullback to there initially.  

The Lower Time Frame 

• Stalling on this time Frame (hard to hold above the rectangle)
• Mean Reversion at 11,925 but potential to go back to the rally origin
• 115 points is not unreasonable 

The dollar index is getting rejected more frequently at 11,980 and that could be the barrier to further upside, there is no doubt the trend is still higher so we are not calling the top by any means.  However, this rejection matters, because it could lead to further downside momentum to 11,900

If price on this time frame mean reverts fully, that would mean a downside target of 11,875 to 11,900 is well within reach

Before, we discussed the dollar advancing 471 points from trough to peak (peak? mini-peak possibly at at 11,980) and 115 points of a drop is not a pipe-dream