Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Getting under the hood



The Greatest Fizzle? 


  • The Most Intense Sellers
  • The Most Intense Buyers
  • Condensing Price into a Box
  • The 50 - Period Simple Moving Average

One of the most telling things about this S&P-500 futures chart is the decline in volume, it should be totally quantified because this is an art too, but look at the right edge of the chart on the of contracts traded.  It is clearly waning from 4.67 million to yesterday's figure at near 1.26 million, the rally is objectively not confirmed.  


The Most Intense Sellers

Relative range highs at 2806 was for this moment the true test of how powerfully and quicky price left that price level.  The S&P 500 has been below that point of origin all year, and what I'd like to suggest is that the most recent barrier at 2712-13 stays as well

The Most Intense Buyers

Playing the rally in April as a no-brainer, price was so suppressed taht 2550 and 2554 were prime moments to be a buyer, I'll take an 8% rally.  

Condensing Price into a Box

It seems to me that the back and forth and indecision from April until today is more of a sign of a long period consolidation before the inevitable decision.  Indeed, the market is scraping toward the highs of this yellow box, but its so near the expensive aspect of it, and volume is not increasing along with price

The 50 - Period Simple Moving Average

The only black arrow noted from 5/7/2018 shows how the moving average so far acted as a point of rejection, and today's trading session ended in a more sideways-chop which means that an implied move with a greater magnitude is coming.  



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